The art of anticipating the future
We see ourselves continuously challenged by complex changes, cascading trends and accelerating developments. We all face deep uncertainties about a myriad of external factors, such as the current Covid pandemic, global economic developments, increased polarisation and segregation worldwide, climate change but also changing donor contributions, the rise of new technologies and their impacts. In this light, resilience, in terms of preparedness for unforeseen developments and adaptive planning capacity, is a key success factor.
Earlier Future Exploration
In pursuit of enhancing this resilience, three years ago Partos published Adapt, Counteract or Transform, the future of Dutch development cooperation. This report was the result of a transformative future exploration. Through this exploration we used key trends and uncertainties – and the participants’ creativity’ – to sketch various future scenarios, including a ‘future we want’. This transformative scenario methodology and the resulting report were of great help to Partos and quite a number of development organisations in their strategising efforts.
Future Exploration 2.0
The present report A roadmap to explore the future introduces a complementary approach that can also be of significant help to navigate an uncertain and complex future, namely Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. It is the result of a joint exploration process of Partos members, facilitated by Butterfly Works, Fonkeling and the TU Delft Resilience lab. The roadmap provides an overview of the defined pathways supporting Partos and its members to continually adjust their strategy and accordingly develop activities and services for and with its members, hereunder summarised as an adaptive action plan.
A Roapmap to Explore the Future: Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways
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